The Good, The Bad, and The Ugly!

The following information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Rio Verde Trading and the author make no claim that anyone can or will achieve similar results in their trading.

The title of this blog is a little misleading as there is little good in my trading for 2015. Be that as it may, here is the analysis of my actual trades made in 2015. If there is any ‘Good’ it would be that the win loss ratio is hanging in there at 75% winning trades and 25% losing trades. The biggest disappointment is that there were no big winning trades.

I made a total of 20 trades last year, with 15 wins at 75% and 5 losers at 25%. Net loss for the year was $-511.83, for an average loss per trade of $-25.59 per trade.

IWM gave me the biggest losing trade on September 29 for a loss of $-659.00. The biggest winning trade came from QQQ on January 29 for $84.10.

Total winning trades amounted to $562.70 for an average win of $35.11.

Total losing trades amounted to $-1,038.53 for an average loss of $-267.71.

The trades break down by ETF as follows:
SPY 7 trades, total profit 138.72, 19.75 per trade.
QQQ 7 Trades, total loss  -121.15, -17.31 per trade.
IWM 4 trades, total loss -581.50, -145.375 per trade.
IEV 1 trade, total profit 39.60.
XLK 1 trade, total profit 13.00.

Of course The 74% Solution trading system generated more than 20 trades. Quite often multiple trades will trigger at the same time, I only trade one ETF at a time. When multiple trades trigger, my go to ETFs are SPY, QQQ and IWM in that order.

To keep things in perspective it is good to look at the historical record of all the ETFs that I track, including all the trades that I did not make. The following information is derived from back testing – paper trading, and do not represent actual trades made. No allowance is made for broker commissions.

SPY: Back tested to January 26, 1998. 253 trades, average of 1.14 profit per share per trade. 223 winning trades, 88.14%; 30 losing trades, 11.86%.

QQQ: Back tested to January 2,1997. 260 trades, average of 0.80 profit per share per trade. 218 winning trades, 83.85%. 42 losing trades, 16.15%.

IWM: Back tested to July 31, 2000. 220 trades, average of 0.49 profit per share per trade. 181 winning trades, 82.27%. 39 losing trades, 17.73%.

MDY: Back tested to 31 March 2000. 115 trades, average of 0.99 profit per share per trade. 98 winning trades, 85.22%. 17 losing trades, 14.78%.

IGV: Back tested to 25 July 2001. 98 trades, average of 0.54 profit per share per trade. 84 winning trades, 85.71%. 14 losing trades, 14.29%.

IEV: Back tested to 11 October 2000. 52 trades, average of 0.55 profit per share per trade. 44 winning trades, 84.62%. 8 losing trades, 15.38%.

XLK: Back tested to 15 January 1999. 211 trades, average of 0.51 profit per share per trade. 177 winning trades, 83.89%. 34 losing trades, 16.11%.

TLT: Back tested to 16 October 2002. 87 trades, average of 0.68 profit per share per trade. 76 winning trades, 87.36%. 11 losing trades, 12.64%.

All the above ETFs that I track have all shown substantial losses and they all recovered their losses and showed a profit. This is why I still have faith in the system and am still trading it.